DraftKings Week 17 High Stakes Ownership Report

Looking at the sharpest plays to learn from week 17

In daily fantasy sports, ownership is a key consideration in tournament lineup building. Reviewing lineup construction and player ownership at the highest stakes reveals valuable information regarding trends that we can take advantage of in the future.

Typically, high stakes players focus on the optimal lineup, or, simply put, the team they believe projects for the most points. With this in mind, we can infer that the popular players in high-stakes contests likely had the strongest overall value when measuring cost against projected fantasy points.

This article series will analyze ownership numbers from a low stakes, large field DFS contest (the $9 NFL Slant) and compare them to the ownership in a high stakes contest (the $3,000 NFL Luxury Box). As many would expect, a contest with a $3,000 entry fee tends to have significantly sharper players, so it’s important to review high stakes ownership to see where the pros invested in a given week.

Week 17 is always strange, and when you add the highest scoring 1pm+4pm slate in NFL history into the equation, things get even weirder. Even so, we see that high stakes ownership reflects a very similar consensus to what most player projection sites were suggesting.

Both Ty Montgomery and Ty johnson were the stone-minimum RB price of $4000, and since both players were slated to start for their respective teams, both saw high ownership at all stakes. Neither player performed exceptionally well, but even 8.8 points from Ty Johnson still kept some lineups in the mix for 1st place, as his rock bottom salary more than made up for a single-digit performance.

Minnesota vs Detroit had one of the highest totals of Week 17, despite the fact that neither team had anything to play for. With both teams offering terrible defenses, the offenses had their way in this one, leading to 72 total points and tournament-winning performances from Marvin Jones, Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins. Studying Vegas lines is crucial to DFS success, and this game shows us why.

Both Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor set up for huge workloads in must-win games for their respective teams. While most DFS players didn’t see both getting 30+ touches, that was certainly a possibility headed into the game, and both players capitalized on that massive workload, ending the day as the two highest-scoring RBs of Week 17. At rather high ownership at all stakes, I do think there was some merit to fading both players in favor of other RBs in the 6–7.5k range in order to gain some leverage on the field, but that proved to be a losing strategy on Sunday.

Every week it seems the cheapest defense is the highest owned at high stakes, and we saw that again here. The interesting exception being the Cleveland D/ST, which was facing the Steelers backups but couldn’t convert that strong matchup into fantasy success. Regardless, they did project quite well and high stakes players rostered them as a result, which demonstrates that even the pros can mess up their D/ST exposures.

Unlike many previous weeks, we see very few discrepancies between low stakes and high stakes ownership, suggesting players at all levels were simply playing the highest projected players. In a week like this where the chalk goes off, that’s a winning strategy.

With most of the DFS world rostering Derrick Henry, many players forgot about Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, who posted a respectable 28.4 points in the Titans’ shootout with Houston. With stellar WRs AJ brown and Corey Davis at his disposal, Tannehill has proven himself to be a reliable fantasy QB, and a great pivot off Derrick Henry chalk. In weeks where Henry sees massive ownership, a great way to be unique to pivot elsewhere on the Titans roster, with Tannehill/Brown/Davis stacks offering significant leverage on the field.

Three of the more expensive TEs in Mike Gesicki, Darren Waller, and George Kittle went relatively under-owned, but only Waller posted an impressive performance. With so many DFS players opting for guys like Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Davante Adams, there simply wasn’t enough salary left over to roster an expensive TE. Even so, a player like Waller with a 25%+ target share at under 10% ownership is something that needs to at least be considered.

Nick Chubb, Myles Gaskin, and Chris Carson all saw low ownership despite being the lead backs on teams with favorable implied Vegas totals. Stuck in the mid-range of RB prices, none of these players were considered by most DFS players due to a worse projected fantasy points/salary than their more expensive counterparts in Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. It’s rare the most popular players go off as they did in Week 17, and if they didn’t, pivoting to guys like Carson, Chubb, or Gaskin could have paid off huge. Unfortunately, that didn’t work this week.

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